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In a warming climate, how can fewer small hailstones reach the ground while the largest hailstones become more common?

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Answer: Stronger rising air grows larger hail, while a deeper warm layer melts more small hail on the way down.

Warmer air stops small hail forming, while large hail still forms higher in the cloud. — Warmer air near the ground does not stop small hail forming in the colder parts of a storm cloud. Small stones can form aloft and then melt before landing. Meanwhile, stronger rising air can help larger stones grow.

Stronger rising air grows larger hail, while a deeper warm layer melts more small hail on the way down. ✓ — Stronger updrafts can support larger growing hailstones, while a deeper layer of above-freezing air melts more small stones before they land. This combines growth inside the cloud with melting below it. The balance varies by region and storm, so warming does not increase large hail everywhere.

Small hailstones stick together in warmer air, becoming larger stones before they land. — The shift is not caused by small hailstones merging in warm air on the way down. That layer melts ice rather than freezing stones together. Larger hail grows higher in the storm, where rising air keeps it among supercooled water droplets.

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