What makes prices rise before any real shortage appears?

Answer: Expected supply risk gets priced in early

Tomorrow's panic gets billed today — Not quite. This is close, but too fuzzy and emotional. It is not just panic being billed into prices; markets are re-evaluating concrete future risks to supply, shipping, and insurance.

Retail prices move before wholesale markets — Partly right in appearance, but usually backward. Retail prices often adjust later, while wholesale and market prices can move first as expectations change.

Expected supply risk gets priced in early ✓ — Correct! Prices can rise before a shortage appears because markets price expected risk early. If traders expect future disruption, prices may move before the physical shortage is visible.